In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 and suddenly it feels like a bargain.
PMS Taxation Playbook for 2026
In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 and suddenly it feels like a bargain.
Portfolio Management Service Landscape in India (2026)
In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 and suddenly it feels like a bargain.
TWRR vs XIRR vs CAGR: What to Use and When
In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 and suddenly it feels like a bargain.
Before You Average Down, Ask: Is This a Setup or a Slip?
In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 and suddenly it feels like a bargain.
Blessing in Disguise for INDIA!
From last 2 Qtr. I had one stronger question on Indian markets and that was why will FII Come back to India?
“Don’t worry, we are here with u for Long Run not Short Cuts”- Turtle Client
I have started to receive concerned fear & stress calls about asking when it is good time to EXIT everything from equity markets, as they feel market will correct more…
Time of Planting New Trees!
“The Best time to buy a Stock is when you don’t feel like doing it”
We are at 17% downside in NIFTY 500 & nearly a 14% downside on NIFTY 50, this CY NIFTY 500 is down nearly 10%, Stocks have crumbled to prices that were buying zone of a new bull run!
We all Expected a Correction, but not this much for sure, but every time when market corrects by more than 15% it is the best time to Plant new tree, let us take example from the below chart we were coming out from covid and we were doing higher highs, suddenly the war came up and we corrected by nearly about 15% and same thing happened that time stocks corrected to an average of 40-60% from their high (Specially Small Caps), but the stock that did turn around were the winners of the next bull Run!
Like from covid lows to market going 18000, companies that outshined where traditional companies, but after the Russia -Ukraine war the market consolidated for nearly 14 months with a correction of 16%. There were new Winners like Auto, Real-estate PSU etc, this time NBFCs, Chemical have given 1st Growth Signals.
In last 20 years I have witnessed that big money is never made in bull market, it is made when we take brave decisions in bad markets, where most of the investors are out of Cash, Courage and Conviction the sectors outshining and turning around in this time are generally the winners of the upcoming bull run!
I WON’T BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH 24000 AGAIN BEFORE MARCH END 2025!
Regards,
Rohan Mehta – CEO & Fund Manager Turtle Wealth
Disclaimers and Disclosures
SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any investment portfolio will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Above performance data is not verified by SEBI. It is important for investors to consider their financial condition, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. The content provided by the Company, including but not limited to reports, research materials, and presentations, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be considered illegal.
For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/
Do you brush at NIGHT?
We all Brush our Teeth in the Morning, but the same thing becomes very hard when it is to be done at night!
The same is true for Equity Investments, we all 😍 Bull Markets, but when it comes to BEAR markets, we are 😨, just like brushing our teeth at night!
Let’s Talk with Data!
“Investment when Correction Comes and Eating only Healthy Food is a Myth 😂!”
We see that almost every year, we have a correction of 10 to 20%, and in hindsight, we always regret NOT investing in that correction, we plan that next time when the correction comes, we will invest heavily, but again, the same story happens, This is like in the morning I decide I will brush at night, and at night I decide I will do it from next day, and hardly that next day comes 😆!
For Instance: We communicated to our clients to invest in Covid madness around 8200 NIFTY, but few turned up, after the recovery they said next time for sure, again I told them in 2022 at 16000 NIFTY in Russia Wartime, very few did, and again I am telling NOW at 23000 NIFTY!
The question also is why are we saying that?
36 out to 45 years ended with positive returns – but even these positive years had 10-20% intra-year declines
The above data is clear again that despite this volatility 85% of the time we have seen positive returns in markets,
The Million Dollar Question is What to Buy?
The catch here is, in the last 20 years, the market has corrected 14 times more than 10%, currently is the 15th time, after every correction when recovery comes to the last outperforming sector changes, and that’s where the real catch is in 2008 the best Performing Sector was Real estate, Metal etc, but the recovery was done by Auto & IT, so market may recover but the Sectors may not Outperform, in this our Turtle Advanced Quant can outperform human emotions to find the Outperforming Sector.
So, a Question we need to ask ourselves is:
The current Fall is an opportunity to create Wealth for the Upcoming time or Feeling Sad for the current fall in Portfolio?
Your answer will depend on the Level of your Future Wealth Creation 💵!
Chart Source: beat the Street shared by Nikunj Mehta.
For detailed disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/
Regards,
Rohan Mehta
When to sell?
In a market reaching all-time highs, with the NIFTY 500 showing a 10 per cent increase in the current quarter and a remarkable 22 per cent in the current calendar year, investors find themselves torn between excitement and apprehension. Despite robust GDP growth, stable inflation, and a bullish outlook for India, concerns linger about the unexpected market rally. As the CEO and Fund Manager of a USD 100 million PMS Fund, I observe a cautious sentiment prevailing in the market.
Contrary to expectations, there is no euphoria; instead, investors seem more fearful than excited about the market’s surprising ascent. A closer look at NIFTY 500 from 2017 to 2022 reveals a prolonged consolidation, with a significant doubling down only occurring post-2020.
Examining NIFTY 50, where the top 10 stocks contribute over 50 per cent of the weightage, reveals that eight out of these ten have been underperformers. Interestingly, it’s the broader markets that have exhibited more robust performance than the major indices.
However, the market does not seem to be in an oversold zone, considering three crucial parameters:
* Price
* Emotion
* Valuation
In all three aspects, the market does not show signs of being overbought. As the saying goes, “There are decades when nothing happens, and there are months when decades happen,” and this holds true for the stock market. Understanding that the market operates on an 80-20 principle—80 per cent of the time providing 20 per cent returns and vice versa—investors must navigate the unpredictable nature of market movements.
A case in point is PFC, a top performer in NIFTY 500 this calendar year, showcasing a 400-per cent increase. However, over the last 15 years, it remained at the same price despite consistent YoY profits. Timing the market is challenging, and deciding when to exit poses a million-dollar question. To address this, we propose two quantifiable approaches.
- 200 EMA Indicator: Utilizing the simple yet effective 200 EMA indicator, which is available for free on various platforms, can guide decision-making. Any stock trading above the 200 EMA is considered a hold, irrespective of the reasons for selling. The 200 EMA acts as a powerful tool in gauging a stock’s potential and works consistently across various assets worldwide.
- Outperformance Assessment: The primary reason for investing in stocks is to outperform the market index. Regularly evaluating a stock’s performance relative to NIFTY 500 over a one-year horizon provides insights. If a stock consistently outperforms, it indicates its potential to continue delivering positive results.
A strategic approach involves identifying stocks that both underperform NIFTY 500 and fall below the 200 EMA for potential exits. Swapping such stocks with outperformers can optimize portfolio performance, akin to building a winning cricket team with top-performing players.
Understanding the simplicity and precision of these approaches, investors can make informed decisions about trimming, exiting, or holding their investments. It’s a strategic move toward sustainable wealth creation in the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market.
I hope this will create excellent value for your further wealth-creation journey.
Rohan Mehta,
CEO and Fund Manager at Turtle Wealth Management Pvt Ltd.