Blog - Turtle Wealth

February 17, 2025February 18, 2025BlogTW_Team

Time of Planting New Trees!

“The Best time to buy a Stock is when you don’t feel like doing it”

We are at 17% downside in NIFTY 500 & nearly a 14% downside on NIFTY 50, this CY NIFTY 500 is down nearly 10%, Stocks have crumbled to prices that were buying zone of a new bull run!

We all Expected a Correction, but not this much for sure, but every time when market corrects by more than 15% it is the best time to Plant new tree, let us take example from the below chart we were coming out from covid and we were doing higher highs, suddenly the war came up and we corrected by nearly about 15% and same thing happened that time stocks corrected to an average of 40-60% from their high (Specially Small Caps), but the stock that did turn around were the winners of the next bull Run!

Like from covid lows to market going 18000, companies that outshined where traditional companies, but after the Russia -Ukraine war the market consolidated for nearly 14 months with a correction of 16%. There were new Winners like Auto, Real-estate PSU etc, this time NBFCs, Chemical have given 1^st Growth Signals.

In last 20 years I have witnessed that big money is never made in bull market, it is made when we take brave decisions in bad markets, where most of the investors are out of Cash, Courage and Conviction the sectors outshining and turning around in this time are generally the winners of the upcoming bull run!

I WON’T BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH 24000 AGAIN BEFORE MARCH END 2025!

Regards,

Rohan Mehta – CEO & Fund Manager Turtle Wealth

Disclaimers and Disclosures

SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any investment portfolio will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Above performance data is not verified by SEBI. It is important for investors to consider their financial condition, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. The content provided by the Company, including but not limited to reports, research materials, and presentations, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be considered illegal.

For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/

Sensex : Year-wise Drawdown (1980 to 2024) year

January 30, 2025January 30, 2025BlogTurtle Wealth

Do you brush at NIGHT?

We all Brush our Teeth in the Morning, but the same thing becomes very hard when it is to be done at night!

The same is true for Equity Investments, we all 😍 Bull Markets, but when it comes to BEAR markets, we are 😨, just like brushing our teeth at night!

Let’s Talk with Data!

“Investment when Correction Comes and Eating only Healthy Food is a Myth 😂!”

We see that almost every year, we have a correction of 10 to 20%, and in hindsight, we always regret NOT investing in that correction, we plan that next time when the correction comes, we will invest heavily, but again, the same story happens, This is like in the morning I decide I will brush at night, and at night I decide I will do it from next day, and hardly that next day comes 😆!

For Instance: We communicated to our clients to invest in Covid madness around 8200 NIFTY, but few turned up, after the recovery they said next time for sure, again I told them in 2022 at 16000 NIFTY in Russia Wartime, very few did, and again I am telling NOW at 23000 NIFTY!

The question also is why are we saying that?

36 out to 45 years ended with positive returns – but even these positive years had 10-20% intra-year declines

The above data is clear again that despite this volatility 85% of the time we have seen positive returns in markets,

The Million Dollar Question is What to Buy?

The catch here is, in the last 20 years, the market has corrected 14 times more than 10%, currently is the 15th time, after every correction when recovery comes to the last outperforming sector changes, and that’s where the real catch is in 2008 the best Performing Sector was Real estate, Metal etc, but the recovery was done by Auto & IT, so market may recover but the Sectors may not Outperform, in this our Turtle Advanced Quant can outperform human emotions to find the Outperforming Sector.

So, a Question we need to ask ourselves is:

The current Fall is an opportunity to create Wealth for the Upcoming time or Feeling Sad for the current fall in Portfolio?

Your answer will depend on the Level of your Future Wealth Creation 💵!

Chart Source: beat the Street shared by Nikunj Mehta.

For detailed disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/

Regards,

Rohan Mehta

November 15, 2024January 20, 2025BlogTurtle Wealth

When to sell?

In a market reaching all-time highs, with the NIFTY 500 showing a 10 per cent increase in the current quarter and a remarkable 22 per cent in the current calendar year, investors find themselves torn between excitement and apprehension. Despite robust GDP growth, stable inflation, and a bullish outlook for India, concerns linger about the unexpected market rally. As the CEO and Fund Manager of a USD 100 million PMS Fund, I observe a cautious sentiment prevailing in the market.

Contrary to expectations, there is no euphoria; instead, investors seem more fearful than excited about the market’s surprising ascent. A closer look at NIFTY 500 from 2017 to 2022 reveals a prolonged consolidation, with a significant doubling down only occurring post-2020.

Examining NIFTY 50, where the top 10 stocks contribute over 50 per cent of the weightage, reveals that eight out of these ten have been underperformers. Interestingly, it’s the broader markets that have exhibited more robust performance than the major indices.

However, the market does not seem to be in an oversold zone, considering three crucial parameters:

* Price
* Emotion
* Valuation

In all three aspects, the market does not show signs of being overbought. As the saying goes, “There are decades when nothing happens, and there are months when decades happen,” and this holds true for the stock market. Understanding that the market operates on an 80-20 principle—80 per cent of the time providing 20 per cent returns and vice versa—investors must navigate the unpredictable nature of market movements.

A case in point is PFC, a top performer in NIFTY 500 this calendar year, showcasing a 400-per cent increase. However, over the last 15 years, it remained at the same price despite consistent YoY profits. Timing the market is challenging, and deciding when to exit poses a million-dollar question. To address this, we propose two quantifiable approaches.

200 EMA Indicator: Utilizing the simple yet effective 200 EMA indicator, which is available for free on various platforms, can guide decision-making. Any stock trading above the 200 EMA is considered a hold, irrespective of the reasons for selling. The 200 EMA acts as a powerful tool in gauging a stock’s potential and works consistently across various assets worldwide.
Outperformance Assessment: The primary reason for investing in stocks is to outperform the market index. Regularly evaluating a stock’s performance relative to NIFTY 500 over a one-year horizon provides insights. If a stock consistently outperforms, it indicates its potential to continue delivering positive results.

A strategic approach involves identifying stocks that both underperform NIFTY 500 and fall below the 200 EMA for potential exits. Swapping such stocks with outperformers can optimize portfolio performance, akin to building a winning cricket team with top-performing players.

Understanding the simplicity and precision of these approaches, investors can make informed decisions about trimming, exiting, or holding their investments. It’s a strategic move toward sustainable wealth creation in the ever-evolving landscape of the stock market.

I hope this will create excellent value for your further wealth-creation journey.

Rohan Mehta,
CEO and Fund Manager at Turtle Wealth Management Pvt Ltd.

August 5, 2024January 20, 2025BlogTurtle Wealth

The Aluminium Buzz

Aluminum prices have been rising steadily since the beginning of 2021 but in the past three weeks, the metal has become about 14 percent more costly, and touched $3,000 per tonne, the highest since 2008.

The behavior of a company’s stock usually reflects the performance of the underlying company. When a company performs well and generates earnings, its stock price rises, which further increases the stock’s demand, which further increases the stock price. This positive loop continues until the stock price reaches a point where it may correct for two primary reasons: the valuation or earnings peaks.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Corrections

When the valuation peaks but earnings are still strong, the stock might enter a correction period lasting a few years. After this period, it can bounce back. These are short-term corrections, and one should not exit the company during this time. The resilience and strength of the underlying business often lead to a recovery, making patience a valuable trait for investors.

However, when earnings peak, the correction phase tends to be much longer. This extended correction indicates that the company needs time to restructure, innovate, or find new growth avenues. When a company’s stock price then again reaches and surpasses its previous high, it signifies that the company has entered a new era and is now more capable of generating higher profits.

The Indian Market’s Emergence from Prolonged Correction

Consider if the entire Indian market has emerged from a prolonged correction. By observing the price trends of major listed companies, many have reached new highs, surpassing their previous multi-year highs, and entered a structural bull run in the last two to three years. The indices also reflect this trend, signifying a broader market movement.

What Does This Signify?

It shows that we are in a structural bull market. Companies from various sectors are demonstrating growth. Examining earnings reveals that, in just three and a half years, the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio has almost doubled. In the Nifty 500, nearly 170 companies have entered a structural bull market after long periods of consolidation (five or more years where the price went nowhere). This suggests that one-third of the Nifty 500 companies have experienced a turnaround.

What to Do in a Structural Bull Market?

In a bull market, at every point, you may not believe that prices can go up from here, and the market continuously proves you wrong by going higher. As proud price followers at Turtle, we follow the price without any bias. This approach has led us to be part of some of the best-performing multi-bagger stories, which we have experienced with public money.

Always Be in the Game: In every market condition, stay invested because you don’t know when and where a big move will come. According to RJ’s sayings, when you are less confident, be 100% invested in the market, and when you are confident, be more than 100% in the market.
Don’t Miss the Best Days: Missing some of the best days can significantly change your returns. Data supports that missing these days can drastically affect your overall returns.
Don’t Focus on Downside, Embrace the Uncertainty of Unlimited Upside: To participate in the market, you need cash, courage, and conviction. Cash and conviction you can get easily, but courage is something that comes from practice. If you only see how much you are going to lose, you can never enjoy the upside. Loss aversion makes you cut your profits and stay in loss. Instead, when you realize that the upside is unlimited and if you are right, you win by multifold. Focusing on unlimited upside gives you the courage to participate in the market.

Conclusion

Navigating a bull market requires understanding how stock prices reflect company performance and broader market trends. Companies entering a bull phase demonstrate strong performance, creating a positive cycle of rising stock prices and increasing demand. While corrections are inevitable, resilient businesses often recover and reach new highs. The recent emergence of the Indian market from prolonged correction highlights significant growth potential, with many companies reaching new highs. Staying invested, embracing market uncertainty, and focusing on potential upside rather than downside can lead to substantial returns. By following market trends without bias, investors can capitalize on the continuous opportunities presented by a structural bull market.

– Jaymin Shahukar
Quant Research Analyst

Investments in securities are subject to market risk and there is no assurance Or guarantee of the objectives of the Portfolio being achieved or the safety of the corpus. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Investors must keep in mind that the mentioned statements/presentation cannot disclose all the risks and characteristics. Investors are requested to read and understand the investment strategy, and take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile, & the like, and take professional advice before investing. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.

Our Client, PMS, may hold the following discussed securities, this blog is not stock investment advice this is just for educational Purposes for more details visit: https://turtlewealth.in