TW_Team - Turtle Wealth

June 30, 2025July 2, 2025BlogTW_Team

Before You Average Down, Ask: Is This a Setup or a Slip?

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In the world of investing, falling stock prices often feel like opportunity knocking. A ₹100 stock falls to ₹60 — and suddenly it feels like a bargain. Many investors react instinctively: “Let’s buy more and lower our average cost.”

This strategy, known as averaging down, is one of the most common reactions to drawdowns — but often, it’s also one of the most dangerous.

Just because a stock is cheaper than before doesn’t mean it’s better value. History and research both show:

Averaging down works only if the company is fundamentally strong.
If the business is broken — bad earnings, high debt, or poor leadership — buying more simply means doubling your risk.

What seems like a discount can quickly become a value trap.

The chart shows a critical pattern:

The deeper the fall, the lower the odds of recovery. Only 1 out of 6 stocks that crashed 95% or more ever made it back to their old highs.

And the time taken to recover?

Mild corrections (<50%) recover in ~1.5 years.
Deep crashes (>90%) take 5–8 years, if they recover at all.

Averaging down isn’t always wrong — but it’s not always right either.

It works well only under very specific conditions:

The business is strong, with healthy fundamentals.
The stock has fallen due to market sentiment, not internal collapse.
You have clarity in your investment thesis and conviction in the company’s future.

Even legendary investors average down — but only in high-quality businesses, not hope trades.

The real edge lies in knowing what to HOLD, what to REPLACE, what to EXIT, and when to ADD— with data and discipline as your guide.

That’s where the Exit Mantra can guide you. It’s not just a checklist — it’s a mindset. A clear framework to evaluate every position, not emotionally but objectively.

Because in the markets, price is just what you pay — value is what you truly get.

Regards,

Kirti Golicha – Research Analyst

Disclaimers and Disclosures

SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any investment portfolio will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Above performance data is not verified by SEBI. It is important for investors to consider their financial condition, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. The content provided by the Company, including but not limited to reports, research materials, and presentations, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities, in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be considered illegal.

For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/

April 8, 2025April 8, 2025BlogTW_Team

Blessing in Disguise for INDIA!

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From last 2 Qtr. I had one stronger question on Indian markets and that was why will FII Come back to India?

US holds more than 60% + of the total Global Market, followed by China, Japan, Hong Kong and India, with India contributing less than 4% of global share—though still above its historical average of 2.7%. However, there is no incentive for an US investor to invest in Emerging markets like India, as seeing the USD returns of India is lower to parallel of USA Returns in 10 years scale.

Given this, why would FIIs—comprising sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, universities, and pension funds—choose to invest in a market like India, where the risk is comparatively higher to invest in with high tax regime.

Practically, the only way India can attract significant FII inflows is by continuing to grow faster than other economies. A decade ago, several European countries, including the UK, were among the world’s top 5 economies. However, due to their slower growth rates and the rapid expansion of Asian economies, today 4 out of the top 5 global economies are in Asia.

Based on this parameter, here are some reasons that can bring FII back to India:

We outperform US markets in dollar terms when the dollar weakens.
We outperform China and capture a larger share of global business.
India is well-positioned to benefit the most from emerging global developments.
We correct Lesser than the other markets.
A change in the tax regime for FIIs can act as a major catalyst.

With this Tariff change, most of the boxes can be clicked:

India is the least affected by their neighbours in comparison to the US tariff, powering India to be stronger against the peers.
The relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi is strong, which could potentially bring additional benefits to India.
A loss for China is clearly a win for India, as the US sees India as the next best alternative to take over China’s share of global business.
India is a Neutral country that even offers an advantage to do business with neighbouring countries, we fall lesser than our neighbours.

The Hidden Gift in Macro Shifts

Every biggest macro change comes with some surprise opportunities as a gift, you know it is a gift, but don’t know what is in it, and that makes this gift more interesting, with this Tariff Change there will be certain sectors which will get highest benefit, and this new story can be the reason of India’s contribution to grow from 4% to 10% in world markets followed by FIIs getting more attracted to India as an emerging market to a future developed economy.

Regards,

Rohan Mehta – CEO & Fund Manager Turtle Wealth

Ruchir Sharma Interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_lRwCucsK0&t=1543s&ab_channel=IndiaToday

Disclaimers and Disclosures

SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758

For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/

March 3, 2025May 14, 2025BlogTW_Team

“Don’t worry, we are here with u for Long Run not Short Cuts”- Turtle Client

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I have started to receive concerned fear & stress calls about asking when it is good time to EXIT everything from equity markets, as they feel market will correct more, most of them were extra ordinary bullish just 6 months back, why this happens every time when market corrects?

World, Media, Fund Managers, Investor Advisors, has pitched markets very differently, As Humans we like to talk about success stories, but all success stories are rebounded by struggles, we need to speak “Not DIL SE but DATA SE”:

In last 20 years NIFTY has corrected more than 15% and more, more than 20 times, so it comes nearly every year once, this pain is going to be constant!
We all Love Small Cap, but small cap in 2008 corrected 77.50% and it took 3150 days to come back again.
Between 2003 and 2007, the market indexes themselves went up about six times. But that was after nine years of zero returns.
Its 80% of time you don’t make money, and 20% of time u make money you have not imagined.
Best time to invest is when no one wants to!

Data shows that most mutual fund investors in the Indian markets do not remain invested for even two years in a single scheme.

If you remain disciplined through downturns or frustrating sideways moves, which can go on for what seems like an extreme long time while you are living through them, you’ll be way ahead of the rest of the pack, that’s the reason I always quote “Long Term Investments & Healthy Food both are Myth in India”

So, what we need to do:

As Money Managers: Try to show the bad picture the tough times, the Draw Downs, along with good picture, the more one is prepared for worst, the less worst comes, and vice versa.

As Investors: Ask yourself are you ready to take every year an average Drawdown of 10-20%, if yes than only invest, or else GOLD, FD, etc are easily available.

One of our Top 3 client called me, and told me Rohan, “I have not called you to give you stress about the market fall rather than I want to tell you, start exploring new companies for me rather than getting scare of losing me as your client and the last dialogue was magical, “Don’t worry, we are with you for Long Run not Short Cuts”.

“If you are reading this, make sure you call your Fund Manager/Advisor/Wealth Manager right now and tell these words, he/she will be 1000% times confident and do better, like I am right now!”

Regards,

Rohan Mehta – CEO & Fund Manager Turtle Wealth

Disclaimers and Disclosures

SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758

For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/

February 17, 2025February 18, 2025BlogTW_Team

Time of Planting New Trees!

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“The Best time to buy a Stock is when you don’t feel like doing it”

We are at 17% downside in NIFTY 500 & nearly a 14% downside on NIFTY 50, this CY NIFTY 500 is down nearly 10%, Stocks have crumbled to prices that were buying zone of a new bull run!

We all Expected a Correction, but not this much for sure, but every time when market corrects by more than 15% it is the best time to Plant new tree, let us take example from the below chart we were coming out from covid and we were doing higher highs, suddenly the war came up and we corrected by nearly about 15% and same thing happened that time stocks corrected to an average of 40-60% from their high (Specially Small Caps), but the stock that did turn around were the winners of the next bull Run!

Like from covid lows to market going 18000, companies that outshined where traditional companies, but after the Russia -Ukraine war the market consolidated for nearly 14 months with a correction of 16%. There were new Winners like Auto, Real-estate PSU etc, this time NBFCs, Chemical have given 1^st Growth Signals.

In last 20 years I have witnessed that big money is never made in bull market, it is made when we take brave decisions in bad markets, where most of the investors are out of Cash, Courage and Conviction the sectors outshining and turning around in this time are generally the winners of the upcoming bull run!

I WON’T BE SURPRISED IF WE REACH 24000 AGAIN BEFORE MARCH END 2025!

Regards,

Rohan Mehta – CEO & Fund Manager Turtle Wealth

Disclaimers and Disclosures

SEBI Reg. No: INP000006758

For Detailed Disclaimer: https://turtlewealth.in/disclaimer/